Sarawak - Christians(44%), Muslims(30%), Buddhism(*13.5)%? Gerrymandering?

Sarawak is the only Malaysian state, where the number of Christians(44%) are higher than Muslims(30%). This statistics, however do not take into account foreign immigrants, and was based on the 2010 census. Since then, facts may have changed a bit ...or maybe even a lot, for after all in Malaysia, anything is possible.

Now, we need to also try to look at the statistics of the registered voters. Is it the same, reflective of the Sarawak peoples?

We have to also look at the Constituencies - after all gerrymandering can achieve anything. Are the number of Muslim majority seats and Christian majority seats reflective of the Sarawak population demography?

As we know, we could have 1 seat with 120,000 registered voter, and another with 60,000 voters.

Sarawak - Demographics - Religions

Religions

Religion in Sarawak - 2010 Census
Religion Percent Christianity 44% Islam 30% Buddhism 13.5% Chinese Ethnic Religion 6.0% Other 3.1% No religion 2.6%

As of 2010 the population of Sarawak disregarding foreign immigrants is 44% Christian, 30% Muslim, 13.5% Buddhist, 6.0% Taoist or Chinese religion follower, 3.1% follower of other religions, and 2.6% non-religious.

Christianity has the highest number of practitioners in Sarawak. Major Christian denominations in Sarawak are the Roman Catholics, Anglicans, Methodists, Borneo Evangelical Missionkm2(BEM or Sidang Injil Borneo,km2S.I.B.), and Baptists. Many Sarawakian Christians are non-Malay Bumiputera, ranging from Iban, Bidayuh, Orang Ulu and Melanau. Islam is the second largest religion in Sarawak. Many Muslims are from Malay, Melanau, and Kedayan ethnic groups. Buddhism is the third largest, predominantly practiced by Chinese Malaysians. Taoism and Chinese Folk Religion are together the fourth largest religious group, also represented by ethnic Chinese. Other minor religions in Sarawak are Baha'i, Hinduism, Sikhism, and animism. Many Dayaks especially the Ibans, continue to practice their ethnic religion, particularly with dual marriage rites and during the important harvest and ancestral festivals such as Gawai Dayak, Gawai Kenyalang and Gawai Antu. Other ethnics who still have trace number of animism followers are Melanau and Bidayuh.

Sarawak Population

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The Population and Housing Census is conducted once in every 10 years by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The last Census was conducted in 2010 and the next Census is expected to be carried out in 2020.

Administrative District	Total Population (Year 2000)	Total Population (Year 2010)
SARAWAK	2,071,506	2,471,140
Kuching Division	580,634	705,546
Kuching	509,374	617,887
Bau	43,190	54,246
Lundu	28,070	33,413
Samarahan Division	197,220	250,622
Samarahan	48,068	87,923
Serian	82,042	91,599
Simunjan	38,098	39,226
Asajaya	29,012	31,874
Sri Aman Division	94,461	108,225
Sri Aman	64,475	66,790
Lubok Antu	23,966	27,984
Betong Division	94,461	108,225
Betong	51,426	62,131
Saratok	43,035	46,094
Sarikei Division	121,628	118,758
Sarikei	59,043	58,021
Maradong	29,917	29,441
Julau	32,668	15,816
Pakan	-	15,480
Sibu Division	246,088	299,768
Sibu	218,106	247,995
Kanowit	27,982	28,954
Selangau	-	22,819
Mukah Division	97,100	110,024
Mukah	46,182	42,922
Dalat	24,152	19,062
Matu	11,498	17,369
Daro	15,268	30,671
Bintulu Division	194,200	220,048
Bintulu	143,429	189,146
Tatau	23,943	30,383
Kapit Division	101,847	112,762
Kapit	58,430	56,053
Song	19,806	20,595
Belaga	23,611	36,114
Miri Division	302,153	364,561
Miri	228,231	300,543
Marudi	73,922	64,018
Limbang Division	74,562	86,571
Limbang	40,959	48,186
Lawas	33,603	38,385

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Source:  Department of Statistics Malaysia
Publication:
1. Population Distribution and Basic Demographic Characteristics, 2010
2. Population and Housing Census of Malaysia (Preliminary Count Report), 2010

Gerrymandering, an insidious weapon to win elections

Thomas Fann

Published: 30 November 2015

There have been many allegations that electoral boundaries in Malaysia are drawn to favour the incumbent and it is probably the single biggest factor that can determine the outcome even before an election is called.
 

Since the last redelineation in 2003 for the peninsula and Sabah and 2005 for Sarawak, the country has seen three general elections with the last two registering extremely high on the political Richter scale.
 

The time for a redelineation is long overdue and it is an exercise that is needed not just to adjust for population growth and movement over the last 12 years but also to adjust for the changed political landscape and voting patterns.

The latter reason is called manipulation. For Barisan Nasional (BN), it is a do-or-die redelineation exercise. 

 

There are two main types of electoral boundary manipulations: gerrymandering and malapportionment.
 

One manipulates the composition of electorates while the other manipulates the size of a constituency.
 

Both have the same objective of drawing the boundaries in such a way that it favours a particular party or class of people.

The result of the 13th General Election (GE13) attest to the deciding role of gerrymandering and malapportionment.

Pakatan Rakyat (PR), who won 50.87% of votes cast, received only 40% of seats in Parliament while Barisan Nasional who obtained only 47.38% of the votes won 59.9% of the seats.

Based on Politweet.org’s categorisation of urban, semi-urban and rural constituencies, the vast majority, 81.2%, of the seats won by BN were rural while it only won five of the 43 urban seats.

PR won 34 of the 54 semi-urban seats while BN won 20. The voting divide at GE13 is clear, it is an urban-rural divide.
 

The real battlegrounds are the 54 semi-urban seats and around 30 rural seats where the margin of victory was less than 5%.
 

If you consider that PR was just 24 seats short of forming a new government with a simple majority of 112 seats, you would have realised that they came pretty close.
 

In fact, just a 5% swing towards the opposition in any of the 50 BN semi-urban and rural seats, would have seen Malaysian waking up to a new government on May 6, 2013.
 

Coupled with the changed political landscape where the popularity of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is at an all-time low amidst the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, GST, depreciation of the ringgit and an uncertain global economic future, the chance of a decisive change in government is not unrealistic.
 

That is, if there is no redelineation of electoral boundaries.
 

If I were Najib, top on my list of priorities would be to redelineate electoral boundaries to ensure that BN would not lose power.
 

The target for this exercise would be the 80-plus semi-urban and marginal rural seats and the criteria would be more Malay-majority seats rather than mixed-ethnicity seats.
 

Going by how the Election Commission (EC) did the Sarawak redelineation exercise this year, we can expect the following:

• There will be no new parliamentary seats.
  
• Substantial increase in state constituencies.
  
• Most of the new state seats will be created out of smaller constituencies.
  
• Large urban seats remain approximately the same.
  
• Most of the new seats will favour the ruling coalition.
  
• The notice given to affected voters will have bare minimum information.
  
• The whole process will be expeditiously carried out.
  

Though there will likely to be no new parliamentary seats proposed due to the fact that BN does not have two-third majority in Parliament, the increase in state seats would affect the boundaries of Parliament seats and make it easier to gerrymander using these state seats.
 

Do affected voters have a say in the whole redelineation process? Yes. The 13th Schedule of the Federal Constitution in Section 5 allows state governments, local authorities and groups of 100 or more affected voters in a constituency 30 days to object to the proposals by the EC.
 

They have two opportunities to object during the process and two rounds of inquiry to attend if the grounds of their objections are valid.
 

Over and above the two objection opportunities provided by the Federal Constitution, anyone affected or dissatisfied with the conduct of the process can also take up legal actions to challenge the EC.
 

This was done during the Sarawak delineation when a judicial review was taken regarding the adequacy of the notice given. The case went all the way to the Federal Court and delayed the Sarawak exercise considerably.
 

Though pessimism is understandable in successfully challenging the delineation process, we must play our constitutional role of scrutinising the proposed boundaries by EC and submit the best objections possible. It should not be a walkover.
 

Gerrymandering and malapportionment are the most insidious weapon one could use to win elections because they betray the trust of the voters and make a mockery of the principle of one-person, one-vote and one-value in a democracy.
 

It is better to fail resisting than fail to resist it. – November 30, 2015.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.

 

** Thomas Fann is an ordinary Malaysian who believes that the key to solving the nation's woes lies in empowering every citizen to engage daily in every aspect of nation-building. He blogs at http://thomasfann.wordpress.com

 

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/opinion/thomas-fann/article/gerrymandering-an-insidious-weapon-to-win-elections#sthash.wzHWvn49.dpuf