Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Anwar wins BUT Fails to demonstrate overwhelming support? Less votes than former MP?

Well, Anwar Ibrahim won ...as expected. 

While, many are saying that he did better than former PD MP Danyal, I do not think so...Many media and persons ignore the fact that he got less votes than former MP Danyal...and that many of the people chose not to come or was not bothered to support Anwar...And PAS candidates got MORE VOTES (not percentage of votes...)


This was ANWAR IBRAHIM - and he failed to even get the voters of Pd to come out in great numbers and vote. In GE14, 83% turned out to vote ...this time only about 58%. The turnout is higher than the past few by-elections - but this was Anwar, and turnout would have and should have been higher...if truly he had the support and the hope of the people, as been portrayed by some.

Now, how many people came out and voted for Anwar - Danyal got more than 36,225, and Anwar got LESS - about 31,016

For Anwar to get less votes, it can be seen as embarrassing. Worse still, when the PAS candidates, despite a lower voter turnout,  got an increase number of votes, compared to what the PAS candidate got in GE14. In GE14, the PAS candidate then got 6,594, but this time around with even a lower voter turn out, the PAS candidate got more - 7,456.

If we consider the voters who chose not to turn up, being those who did not come out and vote any of the available candidates - 75,770 - 44,136 = 31,634, which is an higher figure than even what Anwar got which was 31,016. 

What some may say is that these possible 'NO VOTE' was higher than what Anwar got...what if we add in the rejected and unreturned votes of 647. Can we suggest that the majority of the PD voters really did not want Anwar as MP? Anwar got actual support from just about 41% of PD voters...and that in a contest where even BN, who was the runner-up in the previous elections did not even turn up. [But, then after post GE14 expose, I doubt the BN is even a credible opposition anymore...PAS, on the other hand, has more credibility but its support will be limited, at least until it become clearer on what real changes it fights for - not simply a struggle 'for Islam' or 'for Malay', which not only isolates many Malaysians but is also narrow and unclear. What is PAS position on poverty and 'minimum wages'? What is PAS position on Detention Without Trial? What is PAS position on democracy - after all in PAS governed states also still no democratic elections in kampungs, tamans, local council - and they still seem to favour 'political appointments'? What is PAS's position on workers?]. The Malaysian people are smarter today ..and simple slogans, a general fighting for race/religious rights will no longer suffice...They no longer may subscribe to the notion that a leader must be Malay and Islam - for the people of Malaysia, had this for over 60 years, and such leaders(qualified in terms of racial/religious requirement) failed the people... 
 
PEOPLE TEND TO SIDE GOVERNMENT PARTY CANDIDATES IN BY-ELECTIONS

AFTER PAKATAN HARAPAN WAS VICTORIOUS IN GE14...In a by-election, PH candidates will enjoy the support of the voter's that play safe - choosing to vote candidates from the incumbent Federal and/or State governments in a by-elections... 

In PRU14, the BN candidates enjoyed this same advantage, as they were then the incumbent State and Federal government. 

In a by-election, candidates from the party/coalition of parties that are government of State and Federal government enjoy an advantage...as many do not want to be 'discriminated' because they voted for an Opposition MP or ADUN. So, a lot of 'smart play safe' PD voters would simply choose the current government party candidate. 

Further, voting an Opposition MP for PD really does not change things in the number of seats held by PH. They have more than enough, and can afford to lose a few seats..

The much lower turn-out for even Anwar Ibrahim is also an indicator of support...If the people really supported, would not more turned out to vote - Would he not have got much more votes - certainly much more than the former Danyal, a literally unknown candidate...not even a prominent PKR member. [Remember, the people voted for Pakatan Harapan - and really it would not have mattered much whether the candidate came from DAP, Bersatu, Amanah or PKR. Looking at the votes received from the various PH candidates in GE14, it looks like DAP, in fact, have much more support - possibly for the long history of struggle...Look at the number of votes, DAP candidates got...and the majority they got]

PROBLEM AREAS 

There have been much reports about possible 'over-spending by election candidates' and various other Election Offences...

ANWAR won - but the real question is whether the Election Commission would do anything about the alleged wrongdoings...the alleged Election Offences - noting that a finding of guilt may lead to convictions, sentences...and even 'losing of seats'...

WILL ALL THESE BE 'SWEPT UNDER THE CARPET'? WILL NO ACTION BE TAKEN? 





Pakatan Harapan's Anwar Ibrahim won the Port Dickson by-election with 31,016 votes securing a 23,560-vote majority, with runner-up Mohd Nazari Mokhtar from PAS garnering 7,456 votes.[27]


Malaysian general by-election, 2018: Port Dickson
Upon the resignation of incumbent, Danyal Balagopal Abdullah
Party
Candidate
Votes
%




31,016
71.3
+12.2




Mohd Nazari Mokhtar
7,456
17.1
+6.4




4,230
9.7
-20.5




Stevie Chan Keng Leong
337
0.8
+0.8




Lau Seck Yan
214
0.5
+0.5




Kan Chee Yuen
154
0.4
+0.4




82
0.2
+0.2



Total valid votes
43,489
98.53
+0.47



Rejected + Unreturned ballots
647
1.47
-0.47



Turnout
44,136
58.25
-24.9



Registered electors
75,770
+558




Majority
23,560
54.2





PH hold




Previous result


Party
Candidate
Votes
%




Danyal Balagopal Abdullah
36,225
59.06





Mohan a/l Velayatham
18,515
30.19





Mahfuz bin Roslan
6,594
10.75




Total valid votes
61,334
100.00




Total rejected ballots
948





Unreturned ballots
266





Turnout
62,548
83.16




Registered electors
75,212





Majority
17,710
28.87





PH hold







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