Muafakat Nasional - What exactly is that? Now UMNO and PAS are in this "Cooperation" - and word is BERSATU may soon join. Well, they are all Malay Muslim ethnic parties. The 5 points is really nothing much, or different from our Constitution..
- Honour and defend the Federal Constitution’s provisions on the position of Islam as the official religion; the position of the Malay kings; Malay as the national language and the special position of the Malays, Bumiputera as well as the needs of other races. It also pledged to ensure the needs of a “multicultural society” were met.
- Strengthen national cooperation through musyawarah principles which extended to the different religions, races and cultures, all in the nation’s interest.
- Empower the Islamic, Malay and Bumiputera agenda within the framework of the Federal Constitution for the wellbeing of the country.
- Cooperate and expand the Islamic and Bangsa Melayu narrative without denying the diverse religions, races and cultures as the axis for political stability, racial harmony and wellbeing of the country.
- Collectively
introduce a new offer to the country of improved good governance,
inclusive development policies and distribution policies that promote
social justice across skin colours and religious beliefs.
Maybe, it is an Electoral Pact - to prevent candidates from these parties competing with one another during elections in constituencies. It may have been more relevant when PH Plus ruled - but now?
MCA and other BN members are unfortunately not part of this 'Muafakat Nasional'. Hence, when UMNO contests in a seat, PAS may not contest. What happen if a MCA member is the BN candidate contesting, will PAS contest?
Electoral pacts in Malaysia have been seen as a political strategy by the Opposition, when they previously fought the BN previously - the idea was to ensure a one to one fight, and not have Opposition candidates splitting their votes.
So, is the Barisan National at an end - when one of its component party, UMNO, is entering into 'cooperation', the Muafakat Nasional, alone with PAS? Will it be OK if MCA and or other component parties of BN enter into similar pacts with other political parties, say to promote and protect Malaysian Chinese or other non-Bumiputra interests?
With the formation of Muafakat Nasional, which now BERSATU too may join -are we looking at the formation of a new coalition, the 'BN Baru'? But why not just keep and form the new Perikatan Nasional coalition - rather that this new 'Muafakat Nasional' cooperation.
OR maybe, it really is not so much about coming together to contest against the PH Plus Coalition of parties > but really maybe an UMNO move to garner more Malay support and acceptance especially amongst the current PAS supporters?
This would be something that UMNO-BN desperately needed after GE14 and now many UMNO-BN leaders being charged for corruption, money laundering, abuse of power, etc..and trials ongoing. Najib has already been convicted by the High Court.
PAS, was before a principled party where its values came from Islam.
When it accepts or 'comes together' with persons now currently facing corruption, abuse of power, cases - would it not been seen by its followers and supporters as an abandonment of its core values and principles.
Zahid Hamidi signed on behalf of UMNO - It may have been different if UMNO had a team of new leaders, not tainted with alleged corruption and/or abuse of power and/or charges.
Does PAS now believe Najib to be innocent? Najib has already been convicted in court..but he has appealed... Are they of the position that all the allegation and charges facing UMNO leaders, including Zahid Hamidi are baseless - or simply that they did no wrong?
What is PAS position on the 1MDB - remember, the cases concerning the wrongdoings involving 1MDB is not only in Malaysia but in many other countries - trials are ongoing...If only in Malaysia, then one could have used arguments like they are all 'politically motivated' targeting BN - UMNO leaders...but that is difficult now? But then some have already 'confessed' by their actions of agreeing to return monies involved, even though their cases have been discontinued?
United Malays for a greater representation and power to the Malays/Muslims - Well, that may be lame, since as far as I know, all the past Prime Ministers, almost all Chief Ministers(save for Penang, Sabah,...), even the majority of MPs/ADUNs have always been Malay-Muslims.
Malay Votes - Well, in the last election GE14 - Merdeka Center, a respected polling company, estimates that Harapan’s share of the Malay vote in GE14 at between 25-30 percent, BN’s share at between 35-40 percent and PAS’s share to be between 30-33 percent.
During GE13, when PAS was part of Pakatan Rakyat(with PKR and DAP), '...PR only managed to win 35 percent of the Malay vote, which meant that BN-Umno still controlled 65 percent of the Malay vote...'
During GE14, UMNO-BN lost significant number of Malay votes presumably because of 1MDB and other expose concerning corruption and abuse of power. The result was a significant shift of the Malay votes to PAS, who managed to garner 30-33% (PH Plus managed to get 25-30% only, when PAS was part of the PR coalition, PR got 35% - PH Plus(without PAS) in GE14 retained 25-30%. As such, UMNO-BN lost the Malay support, which significantly went to PAS.
PAS's 30-33 percent Malay votes in G14 is important for PAS's main rival in many Malay majority seats contested by PAS have been UMNO(the BN).
But when PAS joins hands with UMNO in Muafakat Nasional, would this result in a loss of Malay ground support for PAS?
Remember that PAS have been campaigning as primarily an alternative to the UMNO-BN, and during the last elections against the PH Plus. Decades of anti-UMNO-BN campaign(rhetoric) would have impacted the PAS ground support, would they now retain this ground support amongst Malays after Muafakat Nasional? Will PAS's strong supporters be willing to forgive and accept' UMNO now, and work together and convince others to vote for an UMNO candidate?
UMNO itself always knew that it will not win elections alone - so the first attempt was the Alliance(Perikatan), a joining of hands with a Chinese Malaysian party(MCA) and an Indian Malaysian party(MIC).
About 15 years later, this too was found to be not enough, and the Barisan Nasional was formed..and the BN continued to stay in power until GE14. PAS, interestingly was one of the founder members of BN - But a few years later, PAS left BN.
For a few years now, interestingly that the primary target of UMNO and PAS seem to have been DAP - not PKR ..not Amanah in its 'battle' for support with PH Plus. Was it because they felt that DAP was the biggest threat - not PKR, not Amanah?
DAP is a multi-ethnic multi-religious party compared to MCA which is a single ethnic party - sadly DAP has failed to attract sufficient members from the other ethnic groups.
One wonders whether 'Muafakat Nasional' maybe simply an attempt by UMNO to regain its lost Malay support, which is lost primarily to PAS (who in GE14 had about 30-33% of Malay votes).
Muafakat Nasional may be a 'temporary' arrangement until after Parliament is dissolved and GE15 happens. But by-elections and the perceived 'cooperation' between PAS and UMNO may have its consequences when it comes to ground support especially amongst Malay Muslims.
Has Amanah, the PAS break away party, managed to get more support from the Malay voters? What about PKR?
Ethnic or Religious based politics - Many Malaysians today have matured, especially the younger generations, and they will not simply vote just because a person is the candidate of their particular ethnic or religious party or because the candidate is from their ethnic/religious groups.
They would now look at what is the struggles/policies of the political party, even the character of the candidate.
Sadly, in Malaysia, most political parties do not have clear stance, positions or policies on the different issues
HEALTHCARE - Is the party for free universal healthcare for everyone? Or are they of the position of 'pay' for healthcare?
WORKERS - Is the party for employment security for workers - direct employment with the owner/operator of the business, regular employment - i.e. no short-term contract employment, and once employed a guarantee of employment until retirement, retrenchment, dismissal for serious misconduct/breach of contract, etc.?
Migrant Workers - What is your position and policy?
GOVERNANCE - Open Tenders, etc
ENVIRONMENT -
DEMOCRACY - democratic elections at all levels, or 'political appointment' still of Local Councils, Kampung leaders, etc
COPYRIGHT - which impacts everyone, including farmers and ordinary people especially for healthcare, medicines > Are you for limiting copyright for needed medicines to maybe 5 years(or less) - and thereafter government can make and use generic medicines - which will drastically cut cost of healthcare?
TPPA and such Trade Agreements -
QUOTAs - Clear fixed quotas based on ethnicity - or a better one based on poverty, income levels, rural or urban, etc
CORRUPTION AND ABUSE OF POWER -
MPs - equal allocations to all constituencies based on votes received, irrespective of which party. Why should the people suffer simply because they chose an MP/ADUN, who is not from an eventual government party(or coalition of parties). BN was criticised for this - but then PH Plus just continued the same practice.
NATIONAL PENSION PLAN FOR ALL MALAYSIANS - Much needed social protection that will provide monthly assistance until one dies.
CONSTITUENCY - Now, KL and PJ people are discriminated against - so many of them get just one MP - The biggest constituency really should not be more than DOUBLE the small constituencies.
PAS, for example, talks about being in accordance with 'Islam" - but no one really knows their position when it comes to workers and trade unions, minimum wage, employment security, direct employment, etc.
Modern Malaysia needs parties to be clear of their individual position and values - sadly, even the Muafakat Nasional - repeats already general principles found in the Constitution - but fails to be more clear and specific on the different issues and areas that affects the lives of Malaysians?
It is really sad when our political parties are still caught up with 'winning the Malay vote', 'winning the Chinese vote', etc > when really, they should be talking about 'winning the Malaysian vote', 'winning the rural vote' etc - Why exactly are we even calculating and analyzing based on ethnicity and/or religion?
After the lacksadaical performance of the past PH Plus government, which failed to speedily do all that they promised - and also continued much of the criticized past BN practices, many people would have been looking for an ALTERNATIVE Party or coalition of parties that they could now support.
PAS, then would have been the most likely ALTERNATIVE - but that was lost with the formation of Muafakat Nasional(which saw PAS joining hands with UMNO). Their being part of the PN government would not have affected them that much, compared to Muafakat Nasional.
If not, a PAS led coalition with other parties, not from BN, would have been a viable alternative.
PAS has also over the years moved to becoming a 'multi-racial party' - with its non-Muslim Malaysians Supporters' Club - whereby PAS also fielded non-Muslim candidates in elections. Their image was improving..
BUT now, recent actions may have just 'erased' head ways gained with the Malaysian people, the strong possibility of being the NEW Alternative Party/Coalition.
This is but my opinion, and maybe others could share their views as well.
Umno, PAS ink charter formalising political alliance
With the signing of the “Piagam Muafakat Nasional” (National Cooperation Charter), opposition parties Umno and PAS have now formally joined hands.
The five-point charter was signed by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang in the presence of thousands this afternoon.
Held at Umno’s headquarters at the Putra World Trade Centre, the song “Teman Sejati” (Sincere Partner) by local nasyid group Brothers was played through the speakers during the ceremony.
The signing ended with shouts of “takbir!” led by the leaders of both parties.
The charter was later read aloud by Umno secretary-general Annuar Musa and his PAS counterpart Takiyuddin Hassan.
The former appeared tearful and choked up when delivering his speech.
Among those seen seated on stage today were Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan, BN advisor and former premier Najib Abdul Razak as well as PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man.
Empowering Islam, improving good governance
Umno and PAS pledged in their National Cooperation Charter to:
- Honour and defend the Federal Constitution’s provisions on the position of Islam as the official religion; the position of the Malay kings; Malay as the national language and the special position of the Malays, Bumiputera as well as the needs of other races. It also pledged to ensure the needs of a “multicultural society” were met.
- Strengthen national cooperation through musyawarah principles which extended to the different religions, races and cultures, all in the nation’s interest.
- Empower the Islamic, Malay and Bumiputera agenda within the framework of the Federal Constitution for the wellbeing of the country.
- Cooperate and expand the Islamic and Bangsa Melayu narrative without denying the diverse religions, races and cultures as the axis for political stability, racial harmony and wellbeing of the country.
- Collectively introduce a new offer to the country of improved good governance, inclusive development policies and distribution policies that promote social justice across skin colours and religious beliefs. - Malaysiakini, 14/9/2019.
Winning the Malay and bumiputera votes, one step at a time…
MP SPEAKS | The question of how much Malay support was obtained by Pakatan Harapan in the 14th general election (GE14) has been raised periodically since May 9, 2019. Merdeka Center, a respected polling company, estimates that Harapan’s share of the Malay vote in GE14 at between 25-30 percent, BN’s share at between 35-40 percent and PAS’s share to be between 30-33 percent.
More recently, a figure of 17 percent was quoted in relation to a joint survey done by the Penang Institute and the Ilham Centre. Using Harapan’s Malay vote share to understand the results of GE14 and more importantly, as a lens to look ahead to GE15, is an erroneous framework. It is far more useful to examine the Malay vote in GE14 as a choice between being for or against the BN.
With the prospects of an Umno-PAS alliance being formed ahead of GE15, the by-election results since May 2018 give us a closer indication of what the battle for the Malay vote will look like. With this backdrop, Harapan will need to put in place a systematic plan to win the Malay vote, one step at a time. At the same time, Harapan must also not forget the battle for the bumiputera vote in Sabah and Sarawak, two important regions which the Umno-PAS alliance seems to have forgotten.
In GE13, the challenge for Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to reach Putrajaya was to win at least 40 percent of the Malay vote and more than 80 percent of the non-Malay vote. Unfortunately, PR only managed to win 35 percent of the Malay vote, which meant that BN-Umno still controlled 65 percent of the Malay vote, putting Putrajaya out of reach for PR. In GE14, with the then opposition being split into two – Harapan and PAS – the objective of reaching Putrajaya still could be achieved if BN-Umno won less than 50 percent of the Malay support, with the rest of the Malay support being split strategically between PH and PAS.
The important storyline for GE14 is that BN-Umno lost at least 20 percent of its Malay support (from 65 percent in GE13 to below 45 percent in GE14) and that a majority of Malay voters (at least 55 percent) did not vote for the BN. Malay voters were mostly voting to choose between keeping the kleptocratic Najib Abdul Razak-led BN regime or getting rid of this regime, regardless of whether it was Harapan or PAS which would be the replacement.
My own estimates are that BN won approximately 44 percent of the Malay vote in Peninsular Malaysia in GE14, with PAS winning approximately 32 percent (helped by their dominant showing in Kelantan and Terengganu) and Harapan winning 24 percent.
It seems almost certain that in GE15, Umno and PAS will form some sort of electoral alliance, and agree to one-on-one fights against Harapan. In this context, it is easy to see why it would be erroneous to assume that Harapan’s share of the Malay vote will remain at approximately one quarter and that all of PAS’ Malay support will go to Umno and vice-versa as part of their electoral alliance. The recent by-election results give us some indication of the factors influencing Malay support for Harapan and for BN/Umno/PAS.
Of course, by-election results are not entirely an accurate representation of what will take place in a general election. The turnout is usually very much lower, voters know that their votes will not determine the fate of the state or federal government and local issues/candidacy may matter more than during a general election. This being said, by-elections are one of the few indicators we have to take stock of the current political sentiment in the country and it would be a waste not to take advantage of this data.
Table 1 below summarises the estimated Malay support for Harapan, BN and PAS in GE14 compared to the estimated Malay support for Harapan and BN/PAS in each of the five by-elections since GE14.
Table 1: Change in Harapan Malay Support – GE14 versus post-GE14 by-elections
There is no clear and discernible pattern in Harapan’s Malay support in each of the four by-elections since GE14. Harapan’s Malay support increased by 12 percent in the Malay majority state seat of N49 Sungai Kandis in Selangor when faced with a tainted and weak BN-Umno candidate Lokman Adam, who was closely associated with former prime minister Najib.
Harapan’s Malay support increased by an estimated 35 percent (from 34 percent to 69 percent) when faced with a weak BN-MCA candidate in the Chinese majority state seat of N27 Balakong in Selangor, without much campaign help from Umno and PAS. In the mixed state seat of N32 Seri Setia, also in Selangor, Harapan faced a more formidable PAS candidate who was a former Selangor exco member, and experienced a fall in Malay support of 11.2 percent from 49.5 percent to 38.4 percent.
In the Port Dickson by-election, Harapan fielded prime minister-in-waiting Anwar Ibrahim against a crowded field that included a PAS retired Air Force officer (but no BN candidate) and Harapan’s share of the Malay vote increased by 18.5 percent from 29.4 percent in GE14 to 47.9 percent in the by-election. Finally, in the recent Cameron Highlands by-election, Harapan increased its Malay support by a mere one percent when faced with a Muslim Orang Asli candidate from the BN in what is traditionally an MIC seat. In the upcoming N24 Semenyih by-election in Selangor, pressure will be on Harapan to increase its share of the Malay vote from the 36.7 percent it won in GE14, since Selangor is a stronghold state for Harapan and Bersatu will be fielding a candidate for the first time in a by-election since GE14.
What is clear from the by-election results is that one cannot assume that most of PAS’ Malay support will necessarily go to BN in a head-to-head fight with Harapan, nor can one assume that most of the support for PAS that came about from anti-BN supporters will necessarily go to Harapan in a head-to-head fight. The Malay vote is up for grabs and Harapan needs to be strategic in taking systematic steps to win them over.
Firstly, the branding and institutional support structures for Harapan need to be strengthened at the national and state levels. Having been officially recognised as a coalition of political parties for less than a year, Harapan still has lots of work to do before it can reach the same kind of institutional maturity and strength that the BN possessed at the height of its political power.
While the Harapan presidential council meetings occur on an almost weekly basis, the machinery to build Harapan’s brand, to communicate its policies to the larger public and to counter the right-wing political messages from Umno and PAS are still being organised. Campaigning as an opposition coalition and working as a ruling coalition are two separate tasks with different challenges.
With a stronger Harapan branding, support and structures, Harapan will be able to be more effective in its campaigns and be less susceptible to being seen as separate parties working independently of each other. A more cohesive Harapan will be less likely to be vulnerable to accusations that it is being dominated by any one single coalition member e.g. the DAP, which is fuel to the fire of racial and religious polemic that is being stoked by Umno and PAS.
Secondly, there needs to be a more concerted effort to contrast Harapan against Umno and PAS and tie the fates of Umno together with PAS. Right now, PAS is trying to have its cake and eat it by working with Umno on the basis of racial and religious cooperation, but not wanting to suffer the taint of being formally associated with the corrupt and kleptocratic practices of Umno. Whether this can last until GE15 remains to be seen, especially given the accusations that PAS received financial help from Umno prior to GE14.
Indeed, more needs to be said about PAS’ original intention of leaving Pakatan Rakyat and contesting as ‘spoilers’ in GE14. It is likely that PAS’ game plan all along was to work towards an alliance with Umno. If BN-Umno had won GE14 with a small majority or if it needed PAS’ seats to form a government, PAS would most certainly have joined forces with Umno at the federal level. If the unlikelier scenario of Harapan winning power occurred, then PAS would do what it is doing now – which is to inch towards closer cooperation with Umno in preparation for GE15.
Thirdly, Harapan should take steps to ensure that the pro-rakyat policies which it has and which it will implement reach to the ground. Right now, pro-rakyat policies such as the I-Suri contribution for poor housewives, the My100 and My50 public transportation passes and the MySalam health insurance scheme for the B40 have not been properly rolled out yet to the masses, especially to those in the rural areas. As more of these policies are announced, in accordance to the Manifesto Promises, the key challenge for Harapan is to ensure that these policies are felt on the ground, especially by the B40, the majority of whom are Malay voters.
Fourthly and lastly, Harapan must not forget that in its efforts to systematically win more of the Malay vote, that it also rolls out targeted policies which benefit the bumiputera voters in Sabah and Sarawak. This would include a careful implementation of the decentralisation policies that were promised in the Harapan Manifesto. Harapan, together with Warisan, won 24 out of 57 parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak (including Labuan) in GE14.
With the inclusion of additional MPs post-GE14, Harapan now holds 28 Parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak, almost half of the total parliamentary seats. With the implosion of Umno in Sabah and the dissolving of BN in Sarawak, Umno and PAS are almost bereft of any political representation and influence in East Malaysia. As Umno and PAS ramp up their political rhetoric and cooperation, they are also closing off any reasonable chances they have to have any political impact in East Malaysia, come GE15.
A good gauge of the political prospects for Harapan and Umno-PAS will take place in the Sarawak state elections, which have to take place by 2021. Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will fight tooth and nail against Harapan to maintain control of the state government, while Umno+PAS will have to find a new campaign narrative for the state elections or remain politically irrelevant in the largest state in Malaysia.
Harapan should not have knee-jerk reactions towards all the talk that it only has a minority of Malay support by trying to become BN 2.0. With a systematic agenda that is pro-rakyat and targeted policies which benefit the B40 being rolled out, Malay support for Harapan will increase, in spite of the best efforts of Umno and PAS to play the racial and religious card against Harapan.
ONG KIAN MING is the MP for Bangi and DAP assistant national director for political education. - Malaysiakini, 7/9/2019
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