Thursday, February 04, 2016

Sarawak - Christians(44%), Muslims(30%), Buddhism(*13.5)%? Gerrymandering?

Sarawak is the only Malaysian state, where the number of Christians(44%) are higher than Muslims(30%). This statistics, however do not take into account foreign immigrants, and was based on the 2010 census. Since then, facts may have changed a bit ...or maybe even a lot, for after all in Malaysia, anything is possible.

Now, we need to also try to look at the statistics of the registered voters. Is it the same, reflective of the Sarawak peoples?

We have to also look at the Constituencies - after all gerrymandering can achieve anything. Are the number of Muslim majority seats and Christian majority seats reflective of the Sarawak population demography?

As we know, we could have 1 seat with 120,000 registered voter, and another with 60,000 voters.



Sarawak - Demographics - Religions

Religions
Religion in Sarawak - 2010 Census

Religion

Percent

Christianity
44%
Islam
30%
Buddhism
13.5%
Chinese Ethnic Religion
6.0%
Other
3.1%
No religion
2.6%






















As of 2010 the population of Sarawak disregarding foreign immigrants is 44% Christian, 30% Muslim, 13.5% Buddhist, 6.0% Taoist or Chinese religion follower, 3.1% follower of other religions, and 2.6% non-religious.

Christianity has the highest number of practitioners in Sarawak. Major Christian denominations in Sarawak are the Roman Catholics, Anglicans, Methodists, Borneo Evangelical Missionkm2(BEM or Sidang Injil Borneo,km2S.I.B.), and Baptists. Many Sarawakian Christians are non-Malay Bumiputera, ranging from Iban, Bidayuh, Orang Ulu and Melanau. Islam is the second largest religion in Sarawak. Many Muslims are from Malay, Melanau, and Kedayan ethnic groups. Buddhism is the third largest, predominantly practiced by Chinese Malaysians. Taoism and Chinese Folk Religion are together the fourth largest religious group, also represented by ethnic Chinese. Other minor religions in Sarawak are Baha'i, Hinduism, Sikhism, and animism. Many Dayaks especially the Ibans, continue to practice their ethnic religion, particularly with dual marriage rites and during the important harvest and ancestral festivals such as Gawai Dayak, Gawai Kenyalang and Gawai Antu. Other ethnics who still have trace number of animism followers are Melanau and Bidayuh.

Sarawak Population



The Population and Housing Census is conducted once in every 10 years by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The last Census was conducted in 2010 and the next Census is expected to be carried out in 2020.

Administrative District Total Population
(Year 2000)
Total Population
(Year 2010)
SARAWAK
2,071,506
2,471,140
Kuching Division
580,634
705,546
Kuching 
509,374
617,887
Bau 
43,190
54,246
Lundu 
28,070
33,413
Samarahan Division 197,220 250,622
Samarahan  48,068 87,923
Serian 
82,042
91,599
Simunjan
38,098
39,226
Asajaya 
29,012
31,874
Sri Aman Division
94,461
108,225
Sri Aman 
64,475
66,790
Lubok Antu 
23,966
27,984
Betong Division
94,461
108,225
    Betong 
51,426
62,131
Saratok 
43,035
46,094
Sarikei Division
121,628
118,758
Sarikei 
59,043
58,021
Maradong 
29,917
29,441
Julau 
32,668
15,816
Pakan 
-
15,480
Sibu Division
246,088
299,768
Sibu 
218,106
247,995
Kanowit 
27,982
28,954
Selangau 
-
22,819
Mukah Division
97,100
110,024
Mukah 
46,182
42,922
Dalat 
24,152
19,062
Matu 
11,498
17,369
Daro 
15,268
30,671
Bintulu Division
194,200
220,048
Bintulu 
143,429
189,146
Tatau 
23,943
30,383
Kapit Division
101,847
112,762
Kapit 
58,430
56,053
Song 
19,806
20,595
Belaga
23,611
36,114
Miri Division
302,153
364,561
Miri 
228,231
300,543
Marudi
73,922
64,018
Limbang Division
74,562
86,571
Limbang
40,959
48,186
Lawas 
33,603
38,385


Source:  Department of Statistics Malaysia
Publication
:
1. Population Distribution and Basic Demographic Characteristics, 2010
2. Population and Housing Census of Malaysia (Preliminary Count Report), 2010



Gerrymandering, an insidious weapon to win elections


There have been many allegations that electoral boundaries in Malaysia are drawn to favour the incumbent and it is probably the single biggest factor that can determine the outcome even before an election is called.
 
Since the last redelineation in 2003 for the peninsula and Sabah and 2005 for Sarawak, the country has seen three general elections with the last two registering extremely high on the political Richter scale.
 
The time for a redelineation is long overdue and it is an exercise that is needed not just to adjust for population growth and movement over the last 12 years but also to adjust for the changed political landscape and voting patterns.

The latter reason is called manipulation. For Barisan Nasional (BN), it is a do-or-die redelineation exercise. 
 
There are two main types of electoral boundary manipulations: gerrymandering and malapportionment.
 
One manipulates the composition of electorates while the other manipulates the size of a constituency.
 
Both have the same objective of drawing the boundaries in such a way that it favours a particular party or class of people.

The result of the 13th General Election (GE13) attest to the deciding role of gerrymandering and malapportionment.

Pakatan Rakyat (PR), who won 50.87% of votes cast, received only 40% of seats in Parliament while Barisan Nasional who obtained only 47.38% of the votes won 59.9% of the seats.

Based on Politweet.org’s categorisation of urban, semi-urban and rural constituencies, the vast majority, 81.2%, of the seats won by BN were rural while it only won five of the 43 urban seats.

PR won 34 of the 54 semi-urban seats while BN won 20. The voting divide at GE13 is clear, it is an urban-rural divide.
 
The real battlegrounds are the 54 semi-urban seats and around 30 rural seats where the margin of victory was less than 5%.
 
If you consider that PR was just 24 seats short of forming a new government with a simple majority of 112 seats, you would have realised that they came pretty close.
 
In fact, just a 5% swing towards the opposition in any of the 50 BN semi-urban and rural seats, would have seen Malaysian waking up to a new government on May 6, 2013.
 
Coupled with the changed political landscape where the popularity of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is at an all-time low amidst the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, GST, depreciation of the ringgit and an uncertain global economic future, the chance of a decisive change in government is not unrealistic.
 
That is, if there is no redelineation of electoral boundaries.
 
If I were Najib, top on my list of priorities would be to redelineate electoral boundaries to ensure that BN would not lose power.
 
The target for this exercise would be the 80-plus semi-urban and marginal rural seats and the criteria would be more Malay-majority seats rather than mixed-ethnicity seats.
 
Going by how the Election Commission (EC) did the Sarawak redelineation exercise this year, we can expect the following:
  • There will be no new parliamentary seats.
  • Substantial increase in state constituencies.
  • Most of the new state seats will be created out of smaller constituencies.
  • Large urban seats remain approximately the same.
  • Most of the new seats will favour the ruling coalition.
  • The notice given to affected voters will have bare minimum information.
  • The whole process will be expeditiously carried out.
Though there will likely to be no new parliamentary seats proposed due to the fact that BN does not have two-third majority in Parliament, the increase in state seats would affect the boundaries of Parliament seats and make it easier to gerrymander using these state seats.
 
Do affected voters have a say in the whole redelineation process? Yes. The 13th Schedule of the Federal Constitution in Section 5 allows state governments, local authorities and groups of 100 or more affected voters in a constituency 30 days to object to the proposals by the EC.
 
They have two opportunities to object during the process and two rounds of inquiry to attend if the grounds of their objections are valid.
 
Over and above the two objection opportunities provided by the Federal Constitution, anyone affected or dissatisfied with the conduct of the process can also take up legal actions to challenge the EC.
 
This was done during the Sarawak delineation when a judicial review was taken regarding the adequacy of the notice given. The case went all the way to the Federal Court and delayed the Sarawak exercise considerably.
 
Though pessimism is understandable in successfully challenging the delineation process, we must play our constitutional role of scrutinising the proposed boundaries by EC and submit the best objections possible. It should not be a walkover.
 
Gerrymandering and malapportionment are the most insidious weapon one could use to win elections because they betray the trust of the voters and make a mockery of the principle of one-person, one-vote and one-value in a democracy.
 
It is better to fail resisting than fail to resist it. – November 30, 2015.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.
 
** Thomas Fann is an ordinary Malaysian who believes that the key to solving the nation's woes lies in empowering every citizen to engage daily in every aspect of nation-building. He blogs at http://thomasfann.wordpress.com
 
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/opinion/thomas-fann/article/gerrymandering-an-insidious-weapon-to-win-elections#sthash.wzHWvn49.dpuf

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