Saturday, October 22, 2022

PH should best not name a PM candidate > after GE15, then elected MPs should the best to be PM?

Opposition parties had never before formally named their candidate for Prime Minister before elections, but it started in GE14 with Dr.M being said to be the PM if PH wins - was it an official announcement, or not? 

Come GE15, Pakatan Harapan may make the mistake of naming Anwar Ibrahim as their PM candidate - this may be a mistake.

What if the named PM candidate loses?

It may be best that PH may have names of potential persons who could be the Prime Minister - but there is no need to announce it to leave it open.

The era of BN or any other coalitions managing to get simple majority in the Parliamentary elections may be over - even in 2018, PH failed to get majority on its own. Only with the formation of post election coalition with others including Warisan, GPS and others did that majority arise..

Of the Pakatan Harapan parties currently, the party with the 'worst' track record is Anwar's PKR... but, it is most likely that PKR will end up contesting the majority of PH seats..

We recall that 

- About 12 PKR MPs, including the PKR No. 2, left PKR and that led to the Sheraton Move, and the fall of the PH Plus government. Of course, there was also BERSATU save a few, ...

- PKR decided to stand with its own Logo in the Johor elections contesting in 20 seats, and the outcome demonstrated how much support PKR on their own really have...

DAP under PH won 10 seats, Amanah under PH banner won 1, and PKR under its own PKR banner won 1.

Apart from that, seven Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) candidates in the Sri Medan, Semarang, Tenggeroh, Pasir Raja, Johor Lama, Tanjung Surat and Benut constituencies also lost their deposits after failing to garner one-eighth or 12.5 per cent of the total votes well as four from Pakatan Harapan (PH) who were fielded in Endau, Panti, Sedeli and Penawar also lost their deposits. Star,13/3/202

Hence, can we not say that Pakatan Harapan support comes from DAP and Amanah - not PKR. So, it is best not to name Anwar as PM, maybe one of the PM candidates. Anwar apparently decided to contest in Tambun - what if he lost? 

See also:

Anwar, PKR - Dying or still relevant? PH or 'new' political parties - choices for better Malaysia?

- What about support for Anwar himself? Sadly, there was NO contest for PKR Presidency, so we are not able to evaluate how many PKR members support Anwar? Even in the Port Dickson elections, with no significant opponents, the former MP did better than Anwar.

- Anwar's support after expulsion from UMNO was strong because many saw him as a victim but after his release from the 1st corruption charge, the support significantly dropped. Was this support for Anwar a support for a politician, or simply a support for a victim of perceived injustice? 

Anwar should have gone again for a nationwide tour to determine the amount of grassroot support he really has, but he did not. Media and international community may mistakenly believe that Anwar enjoys a lot of support, but the reality at the grassroot may be different...

Now, another problem with Pakatan Harapan is that its failure to build the number of parties in the PH coalition - Why? There are many existing Opposition parties, some new and some old, who could have been invited to become part of PH - which would have made PH much stronger - will this failing matter come GE15?


BN - Well, it is this still led by a member of the so-called 'court cluster' - and, as we know, his defenses in court suggest that the monies were received - and his defence seem to be that it was not for himself personally - but for HIS political party, HIS charity, etc... 

PAS - Well, its Muafakat Nasional with UMNO, is its major problem. Note that PAS's biggest enemy come elections have been UMNO/BN in the Malay heartlands for many decades > and, so its sudden 'good relations' with UMNO will be difficult to accept by many of its older grassroots supporters. 

It's becoming part of the PN-BN government is not so much of a problem, as people can accept coalition government may lead to being together with 'enemies' for a short time to affect or implement certain government policies.

Forming coalitions for the purpose of GEs even with DAP or others would never jeopardise PAS's grassroot support.

PAS supporters also now has very real option in Amanah - formed before GE14 by former PAS leaders. Remember PAS too was formed by those who broke away from UMNO.

BERSATU - This party may be 'punished' by the electorate, as their betrayal of PH after GE14 may haunt them come GE15. The party-hoppers from PKR may also be 'punished' this GE15. Muhyiddin may survive as he maintained the position that those who are corrupt must be investigated,charged and tried. Remember, he spoke out against Najib on the 1MDB issue, and did not seem to interfere in the criminal administration of justice involving former Ministers or sitting MPs.. so, he may still be accepted by his constituents this GE15.

PSM - Kumar Devaraj ousted Samy Velu in Sungai Siput, and was seen as a pro-people MP. If PH and other Opposition blocks allows Kumar to contest the Sungei Siput seat, then he may win.

The biggest problem with many Opposition parties is that the people do not know the candidates fielded - their history, their values and principles,... and with a short 14-day campaign period, and the fact that parties do not state their intended candidates in advance gives little time for the electorate to evaluate the candidates, and they are forced to decide based on which party the candidate is from...

PH to date has still not put out the names of their candidates for the different seats ...They should have done so months ago, as this talk of dissolution of Parliament and GE15 started long time ago...

Anwar to contest in Tambun in GE15

PKR president Anwar Ibrahim said previously that he had received offers to contest in three states.

IPOH: PKR president Anwar Ibrahim will contest the Tambun parliamentary seat in the coming general election (GE15).

Anwar, who is also Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman, was the Port Dickson MP prior to Parliament being dissolved. He had been MP for Permatang Pauh in Penang for five terms between 1982 and 2015.

Anwar previously said he had received offers to contest in three states – Negeri Sembilan, Johor and Perak – and hinted that he would give way in Port Dickson to other prospective candidates, including state PKR leader Aminuddin Harun.

Anwar went on to explain that his decision to contest in Tambun was inspired by DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang.

“I don’t want to contest a seat in which I can win with a large majority.

“I’m the (opposition) leader. I’m brave and I’m prepared to contest in Tambun in this election,” he said at a PH convention here tonight.

Last month, Anwar hinted that he would not seek re-election in Port Dickson and might contest a parliamentary seat against “traitors” from PKR and PH.

Bersatu deputy president Ahmad Faizal Azumu was Tambun MP before Parliament’s dissolution. He won the seat in the last general election in 2018 under a PH ticket, when Bersatu was still part of the coalition.

The nationwide polls will be held on Nov 19, with nominations on Nov 5 and early voting on Nov 15 - FMT, 20/10/2022



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