Thursday, June 25, 2015

No worry - still 40% or more will vote against BN, Electoral Pacts come and go?

Malaysians will still vote against the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional, as they have always been doing. Which Malaysians? Well, those that want a better Malaysia - where justice and human rights exist...

With regards to vote, the Opposition got more that 50% of the votes cast was in the 1969 GE - 50.7%, and in the last GE 2013, where they managed to get 53.7%.

Even before, the Anwar sacking and the emergence of the party now known as PKR, the Opposition managed to get 46.6% in GE1990.

In GE1999, after the Anwar sacking in 1998, the Opposition managed to get 43.5%....but in the 2004 GE, this dropped to only 36.1%.

In the last 2 GE, when Pakatan Rakyat came into the picture, the Opposition managed to get 46.75% in 2008, and in 2013 they got 53.47% of the popular vote. 

Pakatan Rakyat tried to be more than an Electoral Pact - but it looks that it failed to be more. Even the States they won, governance seem to have determined by the party who managed to be Menteri Besar/Chief Minister. Common policies and practices were not there. A PAS Menteri Besar governed Kedah after 2008 GE but their policies and practices of governance raised much criticism resulting in the Opposition losing Kedah in 2013 GE, when they did overall better in this General Elections in terms of popular vote. We remember also that Opposition did once win Trengganu, who had a PAS MB, but was lost the next elections - it is important to note that PAS was promoting Islamic State and laws just before the elections they lost Trengganu...

Pakatan Rakyat promised us greater democracy - Local Council Elections, but since then they have made this no more a priority...or have they forgotten about this. Even democratically elected kampung, kampung baru, kampung orang asli and taman leaders were possible but alas Pakatan Rakyat just seemed not interested. 

The Pakatan Rakyat parties DAP, PAS and PKR claimed to be an ALTERNATIVE - but alas when in power, people fail to see any significant changes in policies - all they claim they are doing is being 'Bersih Cekap and Amanah'(Clean Efficient and Trustworthy), which previously was a Barisan Nasional slogan. 

People on the ground were getting more and more frustrated with the Pakatan Rakyat (DAP,PAS,PKR) - for all they saw was 'new leaders'...and some say 'new cronies'...but the manner of governing seem to be the same. 

When there a big projects or agreements - there could have been greater public consultations, or even referendums to determine the feelings of the local people who will be affected by such projects/agreements. In Switzerland, even when a small bridge over a river is to be built, there is a referendum - and a majority is needed before the project goes through. This could have been done for KIDEX ...or even the Selangor water agreements...but it was not done.

Opposition have continued to highlight BN wrongs - and this is good, but where they fall short is in the proposed alternatives. In the PR governed States, there really should be REAL CHANGES OF POLICIES AND GOVERNANCE STYLES - but there is none. There were some areas that were still controlled by the Federal Government - but there were still matters that were under the State. 

There is growing 'loss of hope' amongst Malaysians in the Opposition - but thankfully there is also an ever growing anger and 'enough is enough' sentiment against the Barisan Nasional. 

The BN support is dwindling because people are fed up... and it 'asal bukan BN' sentiment that is in the minds. The Opposition parties go around claiming support - but really, do the people support the Opposition. There will, I believe, little change in the numbers whether the candidate is from PAS, DAP and PKR, or even any other Opposition party candidate contesting in a straight fight with a BN candidate...

The time has come for the Opposition to no longer depend on 'slogans' - but come up with real alternatives, which they must put into practice. PAS has a great leader in Nik Aziz, and it was his simplicity and humility that was a 'pull factor' - Nik Aziz's passing away will be a great blow to PAS - for many otherwise, anti-PAS people, voted for PAS candidates because of the example of 'Nik Aziz' - are the new PAS leaders also of the same ilk?

Anwar Ibrahim - well, if one were to consider public support - it really is not there in large numbers, is there? If one were to consider the number of people that turn up when he goes on 'road shows' of late, it really is not like the about 100,000 that first came out when he was sacked from government in 1998, is it? 

Will the break-up of Pakatan affect the outcome of the next General Elections - well, if there was another Electoral pact with more Opposition parties, and we see straight fights with the BN candidates, we may not see much difference in the results...but the PR parties must reform...and start doing things differently than BN. If there is no change, then people will punish the Opposition too - we may see a lower voter turn out. In Thailand, we have the option to cast a 'NO VOTE" - and this is what people will cast when none of the available candidates is supported, or available parties is supported...

We shall see...but be mindful that throughout Malaysia's history about 40% or more will still vote against the UMNO-led BN coalition...   

What we also need for new GOOD people to come forth and offer themselves as candidates...and for the Opposition parties to be open enough to pick these newer run under their party tickets...and try to ensure that it is a straight fight between Opposition and BN.


List of General Elections in Malaya and Malaysia

Number Year Government* Opposition Total seats
Seats  % seats  % vote Seats  % seats  % vote
--   1955** 51 98.1 79.6 1 1.9 20.4 52
1   1959** 74 71.15 51.7 30 28.85 48.3 104
2   1964** 89 85.58 58.5 15 14.42 41.5 104
3 1969 95 65.97 49.3 49 34.03 50.7 144
4 1974 135 87.66 60.7 19 12.34 39.3 154
5 1978 130 84.42 57.2 24 15.58 42.8 154
6 1982 132 85.71 60.5 22 14.29 39.5 154
7 1986 148 83.62 55.8 29 16.38 41.5 177
8 1990 127 70.55 53.4 53 29.45 46.6 180
9 1995 162 84.38 65.2 30 15.62 34.8 192
10 1999 148 76.68 56.5 45 23.32 43.5 193
11 2004 198 90.41 63.9 21 9.59 36.1 219
12 2008 140 63.06 50.27 82 36.94 46.75 222
13 2013 133 59.91 46.53 89 40.09 53.47 222
* "Government" means Alliance Party in 1964; Alliance and Sarawak United People's Party for 1969; and Barisan Nasional since 1974
** Sabah and Sarawak did not participate in respective elections.
Source: Arah Aliran Malaysia: Penilaian Pilihan Raya

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